Heard agents talk about “months of inventory” and wondered what it actually means for your move in Manchester or greater Hillsborough County? You are not alone. Understanding this simple measure can help you price a listing with confidence or write a smarter offer as a buyer. In this guide, you will learn what months of inventory is, how it is calculated, and how to use it to time, price, and negotiate in Southern NH. Let’s dive in.
What months of inventory means
Months of inventory (MOI), also called months supply, estimates how long it would take to sell all current active listings at the current pace of sales if no new homes came on the market. Lower MOI signals tighter supply and more seller leverage. Higher MOI signals more supply relative to demand and more buyer leverage.
The simple formula
- MOI = Active listings ÷ Monthly closed sales
- To smooth out noise, many analysts use a 3‑month trailing average for sales:
- MOI = Active listings ÷ Average monthly closed sales over the past 3 months
A quick example: if Manchester has 300 active listings and 100 sales last month, MOI equals 3 months.
What it does not tell you
MOI is a backward-looking snapshot. It does not predict future listings or buyer demand. It also varies by property type, price tier, neighborhood, and condition, and it can swing with seasonality. In small segments, like luxury or a specific condo building, a few sales can move MOI quickly.
Why it matters in Southern NH
MOI is especially useful in Southern NH, where commuter access to Boston and Manchester-Boston Regional Airport supports steady buyer interest. Local employers across healthcare, education, manufacturing, and tech contribute to demand. At the same time, the pace of new construction and zoning realities limit how fast supply can expand, which keeps certain segments competitive.
Seasonality you can expect
You will often see lower MOI in late spring and early summer when more buyers are shopping. MOI tends to rise in late fall and winter. Compare the same month year over year to avoid misreading normal seasonal swings.
Property-type differences
Condos in downtown Manchester can behave differently than single-family homes in nearby suburbs like Bedford, Goffstown, or Hooksett. Higher price tiers often show a higher MOI even when the broader market looks tight. Always check MOI by price band and property type.
How to read MOI in Manchester
Common thresholds
Many practitioners use these general ranges as a starting point:
- 4 months or less: seller’s market
- About 4 to 6 months: balanced market
- Above 6 months: buyer’s market
Treat these as guidelines. Local norms can shift what “tight” means in a high-turnover suburban area.
Use neighborhood and price bands
A county-wide MOI might look balanced while a specific ZIP code or a starter-home price range is very tight. Break MOI down by neighborhood and price tier to match your exact search or listing.
Strategy when MOI is low, medium, or high
MOI shapes leverage. Pair it with days on market, list-to-sale price ratios, new listings versus pendings, and the current mortgage-rate backdrop for a full picture.
Seller moves in tight markets (MOI 2 to 3)
- Price to drive showings rather than overpricing.
- Prepare for faster timelines and a clear offer deadline.
- Require pre-approval or proof of funds and keep terms organized.
- Consider an appraisal contingency that protects you while keeping the deal competitive.
Seller moves in 3 to 5 months
- Price right on recent comps and watch days on market.
- Use a firm showing schedule and consider escalation clauses if interest builds.
- Be flexible on closing dates or minor repairs.
Seller moves in 6 months or more
- Start with competitive pricing and strong staging and marketing.
- Consider incentives like closing-cost contributions or a home warranty if needed.
- Expect more negotiation and set realistic net proceeds.
Buyer moves in tight markets (MOI 2 to 3)
- Get fully pre-approved before touring and have documents ready.
- Write clean offers with strong earnest money and shorter timelines you are comfortable meeting.
- Consider an escalation clause or a strong initial price on hot listings.
- Keep contingencies reasonable and protect your inspection.
Buyer moves in 3 to 5 months
- Make offers at or slightly below list depending on days on market and comps.
- Negotiate repairs based on inspection findings.
- Watch for motivated sellers with recent reductions or longer time on market.
Buyer moves in 6 months or more
- Start below list and negotiate price and repairs.
- Ask for seller credits or closing-cost assistance.
- Take your time. You are less likely to face multiple offers.
Real-world examples
These examples are illustrative so you can see how MOI translates to tactics.
- Manchester single-family example: 240 active listings and 80 closed sales last month equals 3 months of inventory. That suggests a mild seller’s market. Sellers should price to be competitive and expect offers within 1 to 3 weeks. Buyers should arrive with pre-approval and consider an escalation clause for standout homes.
- High-end Hillsborough County example: 90 active listings at 800,000 dollars and above with 10 sales last month equals 9 months of inventory. That points to a buyer’s market for that tier. Sellers should expect longer timelines and more price competition. Buyers can negotiate and request concessions.
Track MOI with these metrics
MOI is stronger when you view it with a few other indicators:
- Days on market and median days on market
- New listings versus pending sales ratio
- List-to-sale price ratio
- Inventory change month over month and year over year
- Median and average sale prices
- Mortgage rates and local affordability trends
Check MOI monthly, use 3‑month trailing averages for smaller segments, and watch weekly signals like new listings and pendings in low MOI conditions.
Where to get current numbers
- Local MLS reports offer the most complete, up-to-date counts of active listings and closed sales for Manchester and Hillsborough County.
- The New Hampshire Association of REALTORS provides monthly state and county market reports.
- The Greater Manchester Board or your regional REALTOR board sometimes publishes city-level snapshots.
- National Association of REALTORS materials help with definitions and national context.
- Public portals can be useful for quick trend checks, but always cross-check with MLS figures, since methodologies differ.
Ask your agent to show a 3 to 6 month trend for your neighborhood and price band so you can see direction as well as the current level.
Plan your next move
When you understand MOI, you can time your listing, set the right price, and negotiate with clarity. If you are buying, you can gauge how aggressive to be without giving up protections you value. If you are selling, you can choose the right marketing plan and incentives for the market you face.
If you want a custom MOI breakdown for your neighborhood and price range, along with a clear action plan, reach out to Tim Morgan. You will get local data, tailored advice, and a smooth, concierge experience from the first consult to closing.
FAQs
What is months of inventory and how is it calculated in Manchester?
- MOI equals active listings divided by monthly closed sales, ideally using a 3‑month average for sales to reduce volatility.
How quickly can months of inventory change in a Southern NH neighborhood?
- In small segments, a few new listings or sales can swing MOI fast, so watch rolling averages and multiple indicators.
Is months of inventory the only metric I should use when buying in Hillsborough County?
- No, pair MOI with days on market, list-to-sale price ratios, new listings versus pendings, and rate trends for a fuller view.
When is the best time to list in Manchester based on MOI?
- Spring and early summer often show lower MOI and more buyers, but your timing, neighborhood MOI, and personal goals matter most.
How do mortgage rates interact with months of inventory in Southern NH?
- Higher rates can reduce affordability and raise MOI, while lower rates can spur demand and compress MOI, so consider both together.
Where can I get the current MOI for my specific price range in Hillsborough County?
- Ask your agent for an MLS-based report filtered by your ZIP code and price band, then compute MOI using active listings and recent sales.
